With so many states having decided that they want to be near the front of the line, we'll probably never return to what in hindsight will be remembered as a leisurely primary schedule. But having so many in play on a single day reduces the odds that your state will "matter" on Feb. It's possible that one or two of the states that are elbowing their way into the first Tuesday in February will prove decisive in shaping the 2008 election. A 20-state primary involving 40% of the country can't come close to replicating that. This gave all the candidates a single destination on which to descend. This would have the uncomfortable consequence for the candidates of forcing them to continue to court their base long after they would have hoped to start reaching out to the broader electorate.Īside from a tradition of political skepticism and manageable size, one of the chief virtues of New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary was that it was not only first, but it was also alone. 5 could well ensure a brokered convention in the summer. Alternatively, a fragmented result on Feb. On the one hand, the states that resisted the rush could find themselves as kingmakers, and being late might seem fashionable again. If that proves true, two possibilities arise. But given the huge number of voters and delegates in play on that one day, it's equally likely that no decisive result emerges. In their rush to emulate New Hampshire and steal a piece of its supposedly outsize influence, the states lining up to be "early" are simply stealing each other's oxygen. All but the most well-funded campaigns will have to decide whether to play to their strengths by campaigning where their chances are best, or to try to pull off an upset by leaving their base unguarded and campaigning in the states they need the biggest boost.Įither way, the result will be something like the opposite of the small-town-style politics that characterize Iowa and New Hampshire hustings. So candidates will rely heavily on media buys and campaigning by local proxies. It is impossible for anyone to campaign effectively before 126 million people in the one week available between the South Carolina primary and Super-Duper Tuesday. The prevailing attitude among those moving their primaries to the first allowable date on the calendar seemed to be, "If national prominence and early voting are good for Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, why should we get left behind?" Thus, in 1988, Super Tuesday, on which nine Southern states voted on the first Tuesday in March, was born.īut the slow jostling to the front of the line became a stampede last year. Some states, hoping to raise their profile, banded together in regional blocs. Candidates who built momentum early tended to keep it, as others ran out of money or dropped out altogether. And so from the beginning, states that held late primaries felt that their voice was getting short shrift. This was the plan, after all - parties would choose their candidates in primaries and caucuses long before the delegates, who were mostly reduced to a ceremonial role, ever showed up for the convention.īut the other result was that most of the past nine primary seasons were effectively over long before late-voting states like New Jersey ever got to the polls.
Under this system, there has been only one "brokered" convention - the Republican contest in 1976. This way, each state would have its moment in the sun, and so primary voters would get a chance to get acquainted with the candidates and cast an informed vote. In response, the DNC set out to create an orderly and more or less binding primary system in which state-by-state votes were spread out over a period of months (the Republicans followed suit). In 1968, Eugene McCarthy's insurgent candidacy was quashed at a tumultuous Democratic Party convention in favor of the establishment candidate, Vice President Hubert Humphrey.
But consider how we came to the old primary system in the first place.
What does this mean for our polity? No one really knows. 5 bandwagon, so that number could still grow. In 2008, perhaps 20 states, representing over 126 million Americans, will pick candidates on that day. In 2004, seven states with a combined population of some 23 million people picked delegates on the first Tuesday in February. Big deal, right? As it turns out, it was. At the same time, it moved one primary - South Carolina's - to the week following New Hampshire's poll while decreeing that no other state that held a primary before Feb. On that date, the Democrats moved one party caucus - Nevada's - to the week between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
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